I Predict The Red Raiders Will Struggle

Back with another addition of Win Total Wednesday where we peek at the DraftKings Sportsbook and identify which teams I think will out perform or under perform expectations for the upcoming season. You can find my thoughts on Virginia Tech here, and my thoughts on SMU here. Today I will talk about the Texas Tech Red Raiders. 

Texas Tech UNDER 7.5 WINS -115

Things NOT to like. QB Behren Morton has not been able to stay healthy enough for a full season. Additionally, his 15 TD and 8 INT isn't a ratio to be giddy about, especially in the Red Raiders uptempo offense. 

He'll be protected by an offensive line returning just it's center that allowed 15 sacks last season. In fact the offense returns just 4 starters total. Tech will get an influx of transfers on the line, notably Vinny Sciury from Toledo and Davion Carter from Memphis. 

Don't get me wrong they'll have offensive weapons to like at WR like Coy Eakin, and some new faces like 5 star frosh Micah Hudson as well as RB Tahj Brooks (1500 yards last year). I just worry the defensive side of the ball will be able to get enough stops. 

The D returns just 3 starters, and the secondary was ravaged losing 3 of it's 5 starters. This is a defensive unit that allowed 26 ppg (61st in the country) and 389.5 yards per game (79th in the country). 

The schedule is always the bread and butter of these picks. I give Tech four gimme wins (A.Christian, North Texas, Arizona State and Cincy) all at home, all in September which means hold your breath the Red Raiders could be 4-1 (brutal trip to Washington State) entering October, but trust me that's where the schedule turns. 

@ Arizona, Baylor, @ Tcu, and @Iowa State in their next four will bring them back to a .500 team at best. 

and a final run of Colorado, @ Ok ST and West Virginia to end it seem like WAY too many swing games in a league where the Red Raiders are predicted in the middle of the pack of the conference (8th). Maybe it's me but I'm thinking Tech struggles this year, and struggles even more if Morton isn't under center for any point. I'm playing the under here.